Still, the fact that Anayi is doing due diligence suggests Pro 12 has moved beyond nervous speculation. They recognize their existential dilemma in terms of competing leagues and are determined to expand; whether that be North America, Germany, Spain or Georgia. Iain Morris does a phenomenal job unearthing speculation on terms, conferences, financing as well as the potential home for a Canadian expansion team. There's even an aggressive target for the 2018-2019 season.
An item of particular note for FRF is the requirement that USA and Canada each have a 40-man squad of professionals. This is essentially the size of the extended Eagles or Maple Leafs sides. If we subtract the marquee North American players like Samu Manoa and DTH van der Merwe (players unlikely to give up lucrative Top 14 or Aviva Premiership salaries for a lower paycheck with more travel) there is still a decent core of players available that could compete.
How well could they compete in those first years? It's tough to measure but the best yard sticks we have are matches like the Eagles Rugby World Cup warmup loss to a internationals-less Harlequins 24-19 and Canada A's 48-38 2016 loss to Ulster's developmental side. These aren't encouraging results but are no reason to contemplate regular 60+ losses as some fear.
The problem of a quality player pool becomes more acute when you consider mirrored plans by Super Rugby for West Coast franchises in British Columbia and California--albeit on a slightly longer timeline.
Over next 5-10 years, an eventual SANZAAR 'east-west' split - SA > Europe, leaving NZ/AUS/ARG/JAP - may be optimal outcome for all parties.— The Chase (@thechasesport) January 16, 2017
Yes, it's vague; "harness" West Coast rather than "create a Super Rugby project." But Super Rugby desires for domination of non-European rugby have been clear for a while. Add in the fact that Highlanders owner and native Vancouverite Matt Davey has already expressed an interest in expansion and it's clear something is cooking.Two key factors for its success: (a) create a sustainable Super Rugby project in the Pacific Islands; (b) harness west-coast US market.— The Chase (@thechasesport) January 16, 2017
Super Rugby rosters are 38 players, but let's round up for convenience. If Pro 12 Houston launches in 2018 and Super Rugby San Diego in 2022, will the United States have 80 players to produce credible results? Likewise for Canada. That player pool that was losing to under-strength European sides is suddenly diluted and traveling far more. It's hard to imagine such sides avoiding 60+ blow outs at all.
Unless things in the Elite Pathways to radically accelerate the development of players, both North American unions may be looking at competing offers to join cross-border competitions. Could they join Pro 12 to only jump ship and relocate to Super Rugby? Or does joining Pro 12 foreclose Super Rugby in any way?
Further, if East and West Coast teams operated concurrently in different competitions how would reconcile Eagle or Maple Leaf availability? If you think it's hard to assemble players with 3000 miles between the coasts, imagine the difference when you have completely different competition schedules, standards of play and fitness.
There are so many unanswered questions about North American Pro 12 expansion, but we have to remember goals in the broader context of strategic planning. Speaking strictly about USA Rugby, we have had bad recent history saying "yes with no reservations" to the first suitor that presented themselves; without much thought of how it affected players, national teams and clubs. As these talks with Pro 12 develop, I'd hope we've become more discerning.
We have to consider that there is talent in the US (and Canada) that just needs exposure to a professional environment to take that next step. Do we currently have 80 players? Maybe. Some of them just haven't been unearthed yet. Who knew about LangiLangi Hapaekui 2 years ago? This also disregards the potential for those youth players who are only now 15-17, but will be 20-22 in 5 years time. These will be players who came through Age-Grade programs and maybe even have a few caps. I think the player pool sorts itself out, especially if MLR or PRO run a domestic competition over the next several years. After 4 years of professionalism, we will probably have that magic number of 80.
ReplyDeleteHi, thanks for your comment. I agree that we have a lot of untapped talent in the country. For all the faults of PRO, it put 150 players in a regular training environment. Several hereforeto unseen players were unearthed because of it. It's unclear as of yet whether MLR can replicate that scale beyond Austin Huns and Glendale.
DeleteAs to young players, the pipeline is there but it's unclear where 17-19 year olds today will be playing the majority of their minutes between now and 2022. If we're going to double our HP player pool in five years, we need increased competition across the board of senior men's rugby. Based on the last ten years I'm not confident that the present trajectory will get us to 80. What structural change looks like is probably another post. What do you think?
We do need increased HP competition for the men's programs at all levels, which we are beginning to see. We have academies like EIRA sending youth teams abroad. More varsity College programs come online annually. We also have more international matches due to the ARC and APC. Professionalism will help. The Olympics have greatly raised the quality of 7s play and help bring potential new players into the fold such Psalm Wooching and Steven (I think that's his first name) Knight (who is playing 7s in NZ). I think we are seeing the player pool grow and younger players are ready for international duty at younger and younger ages.
DeleteTo directly answer the question about where the youth players will play between now and 2022: Academies, USA Jr. all-American, varsity college programs, pro Academies overseas, club rugby overseas, and whatever domestic pro entity exists.
I think your concerns are valid, but aren't you implicitly assuming that the talent pool is relatively static? Sure an Eagles side made up of some pro's and a fair number of amateurs struggle against euro pro teams without their international talent, but doesn't the nature of the game change when those previous amateurs now ply their trade in a full time training environment?
ReplyDeleteHi Dotsot, you raise a good point regarding the acceleration of skills of a Pro environment. I think we saw some players develop at a faster pace because of PRO last year.
DeleteRegarding the point Unknowns and yourself have brought about the player pool.... Still I'm not convinced our current competitions or Major League Rugby will be sufficient to prepare for an expanded player pool. Take Argentina as example. This is obviously a much better rugby playing country than USA. But still has no domestic pro competition. In run-up to entering Super Rugby they had: (1) 3x European professionals; (2) a team, Pampas XV, playing in the Currie Cup; (3) a centralized academy system. With those advantages, a single cross border team won four out of fifteen matches.
Likewise, Japan has: (1) a competitive, but flawed, college rugby system (cf against continual blow outs for all Top 20 USA college); (2) a twelve year-old competitive but flaws professional competition; (3) far easier assembly logistics. Result: one win from fifteen and last night they allowed 83 points at home.
Think about this: the USA hasn't beat a full-strength Japan in five years. In one week the Eagles most competitive match of the ARC will be against the 3rd string Argentina side. It's not pretty but this is the competive gap. If we are to play in a cross border tournament or two, how are we going to prepare for it?
I don't think it's pessimistic to say I doubt our current trajectory based on existing programs/structures will struggle to close the gap.